Stocks that are at or near breakout buy levels for June 2024.
Not Investment Advice: The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Overall Market Analysis
Looking at the big three indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average), all three are trading above their 50-day and 200-day SMA averages. Currently, SPY and QQQ are near all-time highs. Drilling deeper into the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, 336 out of 503 holdings (66.8%) and 61 out of 101 (60.4%) are trading above their 200-day SMA. And finally, looking at RSP (equal weight S&P 500 ETF), over the last 6 and 12 months it is up 10.2% and 13.3%, respectively.
Based on momentum and breath, the market is very much still in a bull trend. Consequently, we continue to be risk-on and look for opportunities to deploy capital.
Recent Trades
CRWD – Closed PL, +$41.23 (+0.005%)
Entered on 05/14/2024 at $325.89, exited for near breakeven on 05/30/2024 at $326.07.
Entered on the long side on the breakout of consolidation in mid-May, with an initial stop-loss set about 5% below. As prices moved higher, we trailed our stop to just above breakeven that was it on the last day of May–a few days before earnings. Given the low margin going into earnings, we would have exited either way the day before earnings to avoid any potential price gaps that would jump through any protective stops.
TTD – Open P/L, -$1,194 (-1.15%), avg. price of $94.85 built up between 05/30 and 06/04
Entered long, as the stock hung higher after breaking above a pivot price of $92.50 on May 16th, 2024. We bought as the price of the stock traded along the old resistance line, betting on it becoming support. The stock initially started moving in our favor early in the trade, but over the last two trading days, it has turned slightly against us. It is still very early in the trade, and the current loss sits within our initial risk allotment. That said, on a relative strength basis, the position has been losing to QQQ since entry as the spread pulls back to its 50-day average. We are watching this trade closely and are ready to cut out if the stock hits our absolute loss target, or if the stock continues to lose steam on a relative strength basis.
TTD vs QQQ – Relative Strength
Watch List
ADP
Stock remains on our watch list, and we continue to monitor the $253-255 range to enter long. Current price action remains very loose, which would require a smaller position to account for the elevated volatility.
BKNG
Nice consolidation since May 10th, and looking for an entry on a close above $3,850 to go long.
LRCX
The stock is building a horizontal channel just below a nice round number, $1,000. Ideally, we’d like to see the price bounce in a tight horizontal channel just above its current level and just below $1,000, and we’d buy with size on a break to the upside.
Archived Analysis
TTD – Original analysis shared in mid-May. Kept for transparency as we have an open position (see above)
Price is coming out of a nice round consolidation phase and already breaking out, however, the longer-term chart shows price consolidating since December of 2020. For that reason, not looking to buy the break out initially. Instead, looking for a shallow pullback and enter long on the breakout of a local pivot. The stock recently reported positive earnings in its most recent quarter, giving it the firepower to move higher.
